One number hides the risk

A GPU loan is usually marked with one number: list price minus a haircut. It looks precise. It isn’t.

In Halo’s sample deal, three credible methods value the same H100 servers 17 points apart at the end of the loan. Across the market, lenders still disagree whether a GPU server is worth 10% or 60% of its cost after a three-year lease.

Rental rates now have indices, and CME lists GPU rental futures. Residual value has neither. That is where the risk sits, and a single number hides it.

So Halo shows value as a range, and the width of the range is the confidence. Each method carries a track record against real resale prices. Methods that stop predicting lose weight.

A lender reading a range knows what they don’t know. A lender reading one number thinks they know more than they do.

This is the case I put to the US CFTC in October 2026: before compute derivatives can hedge lender risk, the market needs a shared way to show why valuations disagree.